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Half Way Through The 90-day Ceasefire Period , Where Does The Trade War Between China And The Us Go From Here?
Kinghood International Logistics Inc | Updated: Jan 28, 2019

Since trump launched a trade war with China on March 22, 2018 eastern time with a presidential memorandum, the two sides have taken on not only bilateral platforms, but also multilateral ones such as the wto.

With the trade data for the whole year out, it is timely to take stock and look ahead to a trade war between China and the us.

I. trade war between China and the United States: the inevitable stage of great-power competition

The china-us trade war is not an incident, but a stage, marking a new stage in china-us relations.The outbreak of a trade war also reflects China's tremendous achievements in development.Trade frictional pressures are an inevitable by-product of almost any high-performing economy.

After all, China has grown into the world's largest exporter and second largest importer amid the pressures of various trade disputes.

Initial results have been achieved in stopping the war

How effective has China's strategy been so far?

Taken together, the answer is yes.

Two sets of data stand out.One is the china-us trade data released by the general administration of customs at a press conference held by the information office of the state council on January 14:

In dollar terms, the total value of bilateral trade between China and the United States was $633.52 billion in 2018, up 8.5 percent year-on-year.Of this total, exports totaled us $478.42 billion, up 11.3 percent.Imports totaled us $155.1 billion, up 0.7 percent.The trade surplus was $323.32 billion, up 17.2 percent year-on-year.

The other is the china-us trade data for 2018 released by the ministry of commerce a few days ago: in 2018, the bilateral trade in goods exceeded $630 billion, and the cumulative two-way investment between the two countries exceeded $240 billion.In 2017, that figure was $580 billion and $230 billion, respectively.Both are increasing.

While some have attributed last year's growth in Chinese exports to the U.S. to a trade war, that doesn't explain the overall growth, as buyers and sellers of Chinese and U.S. goods have accelerated shipments and stockpiling.The actual effect of this trade war runs counter to trump's expectation. In the final analysis, it is against objective economic laws to eliminate trade deficit with trade war.

The us national savings rate is too low, so it must import other countries' national savings in the form of trade deficit for its own use.China, with its high national savings rate, must export its own national savings in the form of trade surplus for other countries to use.

If the us wants to reduce its trade deficit, it needs to burn its Bridges by overhauling its social security system and significantly reducing military spending.Rebuilding the manufacturing base also requires overhauling the labor union system and the education system, and a trade war won't help.

Third, resolve and flexibility to deal with trade war

China and the United States are currently engaged in negotiations and consultations. We need to firmly respond to the trade war initiated by the United States and maintain sufficient flexibility. In particular, we need to maintain the economic and trade ties between China and the United States.Because economic and trade interests always play an important role in international relations.

China-us relations and trade wars are an inescapable obstacle in the course of China's rise. With proper strategies, on the basis of maintaining and enhancing internal cohesion and capacity for mobilization, we will take addressing challenges as the starting point for our reform, constantly improve efficiency, and keenly recognize and seize opportunities in times of crisis.

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