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A Look At The Direction Of Sino-us Trade Friction From Trump Poll
Kinghood International Logistics Inc | Updated: Sep 10, 2018

Over the past six months, the trade friction between China and the United States has gone through many negotiations. Several rounds have come down.Recently, vice minister of commerce and deputy representative of the international trade negotiation wang chengwen led a delegation to the United States to consult with the us delegation led by deputy Treasury secretary marpas on china-us trade and economic issues.

Beijing has been actively looking for ways and possibilities to negotiate trade deals with the United States.America, on the other hand, embodies its strong American priority in a series of tax increases.Because of the current domestic and international economic situation, trump's political status and public support in the United States have been greatly enhanced.Here are three statistics from a recent Gallup poll.Let's take a look now, from these three tables, which reflect trump's political base and the impact on china-us trade frictions.

Trump poll Numbers (figure 1)

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Trump approval rating (figure 2)

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Trump approval rating (figure 3)

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Take this poll. Mr Trump's actual approval rating is not as strong as it seems.

First, in the current situation, Democrats have a 10 percent approval rating for trump.This 10% of quite a number of Democrats to vote for trump, not because they are willing to follow the trump, but because of who I am do now trump everything revolves around America's first goal, this goal is the whole American society would like to see, so is representative of political correctness, the part of the Democrats will temporarily aside their differences and disputes between parties, from the Angle of political correctness, support trump.But when it comes to a formal democratic and republican campaign, whether or not trump is politically correct, more than 90 percent of those people will vote for their own democratic candidate on a bipartisan basis, rather than for trump.

Second, polls show that the gop is 85 percent favorable to trump, which is in part a major supporter of trump because trump represents the gop.However, in the current situation of sino-us trade dispute, if it goes ahead, it will damage the economic interests of quite a number of republicans.Traditionally, the republican party represents the interests of the large business groups and capital groups in the United States, and these large transnational corporations, business groups and capital groups have extensive trade contacts in various countries in the world, that is, economic interests, especially in China.If Mr Trump continues to take extreme measures in the sino-us trade dispute, it will damage the fundamental interests of these large groups, which will be opposed by the republican party.As recently as August 20, solstice, 24, USTR of the United States trade negotiator held another 301 investigation hearing. Of the 426 people present, only three, or 3 percent, spoke in support of trump's tariffs on China.

Look at ordinary people's support for trump, approval rating at 41%, according to a poll of trump's support largely because they finally see, the United States on the world stage to maintain the interests of the American government firmly attitude, finally see the United States in the world economy and trade structure plays an important role, in other words, americans think "proud".Under such circumstances, the American people are more willing to support a leader who can show the United States is tough.Public support is emotional on many levels, and those americans who now support Mr Trump are likely to turn against him if trade frictions escalate, damaging not only China but ultimately the American public.

Another important reason for choosing to support trump in the polls, whether for Democrats, republicans or the general public, is that it is now widely accepted in the United States that trump is doing something "right" for the United States, and that everyone will choose to support trump in the polls in order to express their politically correct positions.Once the ultimate consequences of a trade dispute do not bring tangible benefits to the United States, but do harm to the U.S. economy, public opinion will be reversed.

Indeed, even if trade frictions benefit some quarters of the us, they do more damage to the country as a whole.To make a simple static comparison, the current tariff imposed by the United States is about 5%. The United States intends to raise the tax rate on China's $200 billion imported goods and impose a 25% tariff. In other words, if China still exports $200 billion of goods to the United States, the tariff revenue of the United States will increase by 20%.But the $200bn of Chinese exports to the us are well below 20 per cent.The 25% tariff is too heavy for most Chinese exporters to bear, especially for mid - and low-end products.If America a 25% tariff become fact, China's export enterprises have to slash exports to the United States trade, if exports to America are down to $50 billion, the U.S. tariffs on only 25% of the 50 billion, or $12.5 billion, compared with 5% of $200 billion or $10 billion, tariffs on imports of increased by only $2.5 billion tariff revenue.In the process, of course, China has suffered huge losses. What about the United States?

As a result of the $150 billion reduction in Chinese goods in the United States, other countries must be found to provide the same quality goods to fill the gap in the U.S. market and meet the demand in the U.S. market.No developing country can afford a 25% tariff.Trump's original plan was for the United States to produce its own goods, which would boost employment and increase the wages of those employed workers when it produced $150 billion of its own goods.However, the annual GDP of the us domestic market is about $19 trillion, with $150 billion accounting for less than 1% of the domestic GDP. If compared with the total retail sales of social goods in the us in 2017, it is only 2.6%.Americans in the middle and below, who make up about 70 percent of the population, spend 25 percent more each year on low-end consumer goods.

On the other hand, U.S. exports to China will also be severely affected, as China is a major importer of U.S. agricultural products, such as soybeans and corn, as well as high-end manufacturing products.The us manufacturers of goods exported to China mainly fall into two categories: high-tech enterprises and agricultural, animal and fishery by-products enterprises.In response to the us tariffs, China imposed a 25 per cent tariff on 50 billion us products.That $12.5 billion to $50 billion is likely to be all the profits of these American companies.Once the trade dispute between China and the United States escalated and both sides imposed huge tariffs on each other, it not only hurt China's economy, but also the United States in the end.

To sum up, several conclusions can be drawn:

1. From historical experience, trade frictions should be resolved through trade negotiations, not through trade sanctions.The result of any trade dispute towards trade sanctions is that both sides suffer.

2. Trump will not fail to see the challenges and difficulties he faces, so he will not push the trade dispute between China and the United States to the extreme, which will hurt both sides and ultimately hurt his path to office.

The Chinese government has always stated that it hopes to solve the problem through consultation and negotiation.Vice minister of commerce wang zhaowen led a delegation to the United States for negotiation, which played a connecting role in the progress of sino-us trade negotiations and laid a foundation for the next round of negotiations.

To sum up, frictions and trade disputes are permanent, but periodic compromises do more good than harm to both parties.

(see article on BBS in China)


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